2018–19 South Pacific cyclone season (Olo72)
The 2018–19 South Pacific cyclone season was a extremely active season that produced a 14 tropical cyclones, 7 of which became severe tropical cyclones. The season officially began on November 1, 2018 and ended on April 30, 2019; however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2019 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS). Seasonal forecasts Ahead of the cyclone season, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2018.The outlook took into account the extremely strong El Niño 3.4.The outlook called for a above number of tropical cyclones for the 2018–19 season, with twelve to eighteen named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of about 10.At least six of the tropical cyclones were expected to become Category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while four could become Category 4 severe tropical cyclones; they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was very likely to occur during the season. In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region. The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 90% chance of seeing activity above its average of 7 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 95% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between four and six tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.1 cyclones.At least one of the tropical cyclones was expected to intensify into a Category 3 or higher severe tropical cyclone. They also predicted that the main area for tropical cyclogenesis would be within the Coral Sea, to the west of the International Dateline. Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that New Caledonia, Tonga, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea had an above average chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone or the. They also predicted that the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Vanuatu had a above normal risk of being impacted by one or more tropical cyclones. The Southern Cook Islands, American Samoa, Samoa, Niue, Tokelau, Tuvalu, as well as Wallis and Futuna were thought to have a below average chance of being impacted. It was also considered very likely that the Northern Cook Islands, French Polynesia, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands would be affected by a tropical cyclone.The FMS's outlook predicted that Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji as well as Wallis and Futuna had a normal chance of being impacted by a tropical cyclone.The outlook also predicted that the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia had a hight chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone. It was thought that there was a hight risk of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa being impacted by at least one severe tropical cyclone, while other areas such as the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue and French Polynesia, had a medium chance of being impacted by a severe tropical cyclone. Timeline ImageSize = width:825 height:260 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2016 till:01/07/2017 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2016 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TDi value:rgb(0.5,0.8,1) legend:Tropical_Disturbance id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression id:C1 value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Category_1_=_63-87_km/h_(39-54_mph) id:C2 value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Category_2_=_88-142_km/h_(55-74_mph) id:C3 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_3_=_143-158-km/h_(75-98_mph) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_4_=_159-204_km/h_(99-127_mph) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥205_km/h_(≥128_mph) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:02/06/2016 till:06/06/2016 color:C2 text:"Amos" from:08/07/2016 till:09/07/2016 color:TDi text:"02F" from:01/08/2016 till:03/08/2016 color:TDi text:"03F" from:07/08/2016 till:10/08/2016 color:TD text:"04F" from:14/09/2016 till:20/09/2016 color:C3 text:"Bart" from:18/09/2016 till:19/09/2016 color:TDi text:"05F" from:21/09/2016 till:24/09/2016 color:TDi text:"06F" from:23/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 color:TDi text:"07F" from:25/09/2016 till:27/09/2016 color:TDi text:"08F" from:25/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 color:TDi text:"09F" barset:break from:28/09/2016 till:30/09/2016 color:TDi text:"10F" from:29/09/2016 till:03/10/2016 color:TDi text:"11F" from:05/10/2016 till:12/10/2016 color:TD text:"12F" from:07/10/2016 till:21/10/2016 color:C3 text:"Cook" from:28/10/2016 till:02/11/2016 color:C3 text:"Donna" from:28/10/2016 till:30/10/2016 color:TDi text:"15F" from:01/11/2016 till:24/11/2016 color:C5 text:"Ella" from:13/11/2016 till:21/11/2016 color:C4 text:"Fehi" from:22/11/2016 till:04/12/2016 color:C5 text:"Gita" from:08/12/2016 till:12/12/2016 color:C1 text:"Hola" barset:break from:24/12/2016 till:28/12/2016 color:TD text:"20F" from:01/01/2017 till:02/01/2017 color:TD text:"21F" from:03/01/2017 till:05/01/2017 color:TDi text:"22F" from:08/01/2017 till:11/01/2017 color:TDi text:"23F" from:10/01/2017 till:13/01/2017 color:TD text:"24F" from:20/01/2017 till:26/01/2017 color:C4 text:"Iris" from:22/01/2017 till:23/01/2017 color:TDi text:"26F" from:26/01/2017 till:28/01/2017 color:TDi text:"27F" from:30/01/2017 till:13/02/2017 color:C5 text:"Josie" from:03/02/2017 till:05/02/2017 color:C1 text:"Keni" barset:break from:09/02/2017 till:11/02/2017 color:TD text:"30F" from:10/02/2017 till:12/02/2017 color:TDi text:"31F" from:14/02/2017 till:17/02/2017 color:TD text:"32F" from:20/02/2017 till:25/02/2017 color:C3 text:"Liua" from:23/02/2017 till:25/02/2017 color:TDi text:"34F" from:01/03/2017 till:15/03/2017 color:C5 text:"Mona" from:03/04/2017 till:05/04/2017 color:C1 text:"Neil" from:10/04/2017 till:16/04/2017 color:TDi text:"37F" from:27/04/2017 till:29/04/2017 color:TD text:"38F" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2016 till:01/07/2016 text:June from:01/07/2016 till:01/08/2016 text:July from:01/08/2016 till:01/09/2016 text:August from:01/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 text:September from:01/10/2016 till:01/11/2016 text:October from:01/11/2016 till:01/12/2016 text:November from:01/12/2016 till:01/01/2017 text:December from:01/01/2017 till:01/02/2017 text:January from:01/02/2017 till:01/03/2017 text:February from:01/03/2017 till:01/04/2017 text:March from:01/04/2017 till:01/05/2017 text:April from:01/05/2017 till:01/06/2017 text:May from:01/06/2017 till:01/07/2017 text:June TextData = pos:(569,23) text:"(For further details, please see" pos:(713,23) text:" scales)" The 2018–19 season was one of the most active and longest South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons on record, with 14 tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season was characterised by a very strong 3.4 El Niño event, which resulted in eleven tropical cyclones occurring to the east of the International Dateline. some of these tropical cyclones went on to affect the island nation of French Polynesia, which it was thought had not been affected by a tropical cyclone since another very strong El Nino episode in 1905-06. During the season, seven of the fourteen tropical cyclones observed to the east of 160 E were severe tropical cyclones.After the season had officially ended during April 30, some meteorologists identified a subtropical depression developed from May 2 to May 5. The tropical depression that developed during May 11 was thought to be the easternmost forming South Pacific tropical cyclone ever observed in the satellite era, as it developed near 130°W. Storms Tropical Cyclone Amos Tropical Depression 04F Severe Tropical Cyclone Bart Tropical Depression 12F Tropical Cyclone Cook Tropical Cyclone Donna Severe Tropical Cyclone Ella Severe Tropical Cyclone Fehi Severe Tropical Cyclone Gita Tropical Cyclone Hola Tropical Low 20F Tropical Depression 21F Tropical Depression 24F Severe Tropical Cyclone Iris Severe Tropical Cyclone Josie Tropical Cyclone Keni Tropical Depression 30F Tropical Depression 32F Severe Tropical Cyclone Liua Severe Tropical Cyclone Mona Tropical Cyclone Neil Tropical Depression 38F Storm names Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. With tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W named by the RSMC Nadi. However should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named in conjunction with RSMC Nadi by TCWC Wellington. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name. The next names on the naming list are listed below. Season effects Other Systems On January 29, the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on a tropical disturbance, which was located near the Vanuatu Islands The system had a well defined low-level circulation, and was located within an area of warm sea surface temperatures and marginal vertical wind shear.Being named with the BOM instead of the RSMC,the name was Trevor,the system exited basin some days later. Chilean subtropical storm On May 2, 2018, a system potentially classified as a subtropical cyclone formed east of 120°W, just a few hundred miles off the coast of Chile. The cyclone formed in an area without a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, so it was not officially classified.On May 4, the satellite services division of the NOAA classified the system as a subtropical storm with a symmetric eye,transitioning in tropical depression near land despite occurring in cooler (below 20°C) sea surface temperatures. Category:Olo72 Category:Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone seasons Category:South pacific cyclone season Category:Intense Storms Category:Cyclones Category:2018